Thursday Caps Clips: On-Ward and Up-Ward

Your savory breakfast links:

' :: exhale ::

' Recaps and other assorted musings on yesterday's series-clinching OT win from us, Caps365 video (Hunter, Caps players, Hendricks, handshakes), Vogs, Capitals Voice, NHL.com, WashTimes (gamer, blog, blog, blog), WaPo (gamer, blog, blog, blog, photos), DCEx, CSNW (gamer, blog, Beninati), Boston Globe, WEEI, Puck Daddy (and again), Yahoo! Sports, ESPN, TSN (and again (video), THN (and again), SI (and again), Eye on Hockey, Backhand Shelf, Sporting News, NYT, Frankovic, Peerless, RMNB (gamer, blog, blog), DSP, KOL, Caps Outsider, RtR, Puckhead, THW, Pass Shoot Score, Caps B-Ball and Hockey Hourly.

' Braden Holtby finds Rich Peverley 's lack of faith disturbing ... [SB Nation, Half Smokes, Backhand Shelf, NHL.com]

' ... as he steps into the spotlight. [NHL.com, The Goalie Guild]

' A radio call like no other. [Puck Daddy, @timleone]

' Glove tap for the Caps from Dennis Seidenberg ... [BHerald]

' ... and say, that fella wearing #22 and creating that OT goal looks familiar ... [BHerald]

' ... along those lines, why exactly did the Avs cut Matt Hendricks loose again? [Denver Post]

' ... and same could be said for the 'Hawks and Troy Brouwer. [Second City Hockey]

' Twenty four hours of awesome in DC sports. [DC Sports Bog]

' Now comes the "hurry-up-and-wait" phase to determine the Caps' second-round opponent. [NHL.com]

' Joel Ward 's overtime game-winner was sublime. The response of some folks in social media, less so. [Caps Outsider, Sick Unbelievable, Puck Daddy, DC Sports Bog]

' "That wasn’t pretty - that was beautiful." Uncle Ted savors his team's victory ... [DCEx]

' ... and his general manager knows how necessary this was for the franchise ... [DCEx]

' ... and for his coach. [Sick Unbelievable]

' The Hershey Bears looked into the abyss of playoff elimination and decided instead to pull out a Game Three victory in overtime ... [Patriot-News, SHoE, Caps Outsider, Chirps]

' ... 2:57 of overtime, to be exact. Which is precisely how much OT the Caps needed to score their victory. I guess I know which numbers to play for Pick Three. [Sick Unbelievable]

' JP's playoff beard will live! So give.

' Finally, happy 58th birthday to Pat Ribble.

Recap: Caps 2, Bruins 1 (OT)

[GameCenter - Ice Tracker - Game Summary - Event Summary - Faceoff Summary - Play-by-Play - Home TOI - Visitor TOI - Shift Charts - Head-to-Head - Fenwick/Corsi - Zone Starts - Fenwick Timeline]

And so it all came down to this. A series of inches, millimeters even. A series of close calls and great goaltending. A series that many thought wouldn't be so close ended up being closer than any seven-game series has ever been. A series in which many thought the Bruins' physicality and experience would prove too much for the underdog Caps.

It would all culminate in the ultimate sporting event, Game 7, one game to decide it all. And as has been the case in so much of this series, this one was tied... right up until it wasn't.

Game over. Series over. Caps move on.

Ten more notes on the game:

• Coming into this game - as with all the others - the Caps had to know that the first goal would be crucially important. Take the hometown crowd out of it early, put the other guys on their heels, etc. In this series it's been crucially important, with the team scoring the first goal winning five (now six) of the seven games. And the Caps took care of business thanks to a great shot from the point from series stud John Carlson and a better deflection in front of the net by Matt Hendricks.
• After that it was time for Hunter Hockey to take over, and that meant playing a patient game, forcing the Bruins to make plays and not taking undue chances. Sound boring? Perhaps in a non-playoff, non-Game 7 situation. But early on in this one, when it seemed like the Bruins were getting frustrated by the defensive posture, it was nothing short of poetry.
• Physical play wasn't exactly lacking, a factor in this game as it has been in the six prior, but it was more of a restrained type of physicality - neither team wanting to push the envelope too much and gift the other team a power play in what was sure to be a close one. Lots of near-physical stuff, though, with Hendricks restraining Jason Chimera at one point and Rich Peverley restraining himself later on.
• Search back through your memory banks, kids - when is the last time you saw a penalty overturned that didn't involve a puck going over the glass? When's the last time you saw it happen in the Caps' favor? Every so often they get it right, and it happened tonight, as an apparent slash by Jay Beagle was waived off after a referee conference determined it was no foul. Blind squirrel, nut, etc.
• Maybe you thought that patient, defense-first, one-goal lead would hold up all game and the Caps would ride a Braden Holtby shutout to the second round... silly rabbit. Holtby was nothing short of tremendous at times for the Caps in this series, but just as it happened in other games, a bobble by the rookie goaltender ended up costing the Caps. Granted, his teammates need to get the puck out of the zone, as well, but a couple of bluffed saves turned into a juicy puck left all alone in the blue paint which led to Tyler Seguin getting his stick on it and tying up the game.
• Ovechkin's ice time has been an ongoing storyline in this series, but never more underlined than it was tonight. Sure, when the game is tight you want to give your defensively responsible guys some ice time... but Game 7 in the playoffs when another goal would give your team a cushion, this is when you let guys like Ovechkin shine. He wants the puck, he wants the stage, and he was looking dangerous tonight. The fact that it worked out okay for the Caps is fine, but Ovechkin not being a factor tonight was troubling - and it wasn't because of Ovechkin himself.
• Very surprising that after the Caps got the benefit of a call early on, the referees saw fit to put away the whistles... except when it came to the last three minutes of a tied game. Did I say surprising? I meant NOT surprising. The refs actually did a good job of letting both sides play most of the night, and while I'm not one to say game situations should dictate what is and isn't a penalty, calling one that late on a play that earlier would've been let go was frustrating. Major kudos to the penalty killers for the biggest two minutes of the year right there.
• Every Caps fan was likely smacking their forehead when Marcus Johansson made the odd decision to eschew the open lane presented to him on the power play and instead telegraph a dangerous cross-ice pass that was, of course, picked off. Those same foreheads were being wiped in relief just moments later when the Bruins failed to capitalize.
• Often in a series like this the top guys cancel each other out, leaving the outcome in the hands of the third- and fourth-liners - the guys who don't normally get much glory, who do more work that doesn't show up on the scoresheet while the big names are running the show. Tonight was no exception, and it was the Caps' third- and fourth-lines that dominated early and often, from the deflection by Matt Hendricks right up to the end.
• Nothing is as exciting as seeing your team win a series in overtime. Nothing. And Joel Ward made sure that the Caps' and their fans finally ended their Game 7 miseries when he picked up a rebound after a two-on-one with Mike Knuble, and made it count. A wee bit of interference by Knuble on Tim Thomas? Perhaps. But it's about time the karmic pendulum swung the Caps' way in that department, and it paid off big time. Your playoff hero: Joel Ward.

So we bid adieu to our valiant opponents in Boston and look ahead to the next ones - but not before we celebrate the moment, savor it, enjoy it, run it over in your heads as many times as necessary. Tonight, thanks to Joel Ward, Braden Holtby and the Caps... we celebrate.

Game highlights:

Capitals/Bruins: Revisiting the Match-Ups

Leading up to the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals battle between the Washington Capitals and Boston Bruins we took a look at various aspects of the series, from individual players to special teams to the specific match-ups we could expect to see. In that post, we noted that there were three match-ups that would likely decide the series:

As far as the skaters go, the three most important match-ups seem to be as follows: Ovechkin against Chara, Alzner against whichever line he faces, and the battle of the second lines. The second line battle could spell trouble for the Caps. The 2C problem has been around as long as Ovechkin has, and it could once again rear it's head this series. Given the talent the Bruins have on the second line, it makes sense to play Brooks Laich at whichever top-6 center position Nicklas Backstrom isn't playing. His offensive contributions as 2C haven't been great in the times he's spent at that position, but he'll be defensively reliable and may be able to allow the Alex on his wing to spend some time in the offensive zone.

If the Caps win two of those three battles and the goaltending is anything close to even, the Caps should win the series. If not... well, Braden Holtby better be great.

So far, as you'd expect in a 7 game series, these match-ups have been incredibly close. The Caps can only claim a real advantage in one of these three match-ups, and the winner of the other two match-ups will likely be decided tonight... in favor of the winner of this series.

Let's start with the good news: one of these three match-ups has been pretty well dominated by the Caps. If you've watched this series at all it's probably not that surprising that the match-up in question is Karl Alzner against the Bruins' top line (whatever iteration it may take on any given game). Alzner and his partner, John Carlson, have only been on for two even strength goals against. The only difference between their performance was Carlson being on the ice for a four-on-four goal that hit Braden Holtby in the glove before squeaking past him and into the net. One of the goals that the duo was on the ice for together at five-a-side was an incredible deflection from Rich Peverley, one that saw the puck bounce off the ice before tucking itself neatly inside the post; the Bruins won a faceoff and made quick work of it. The other was the Andrew Ference goal that was the result of a rebound that was cashed in by the second trailer, both D had their man covered. It's hard to blame either of the Caps top Dmen for either goal. Other than that, they've straight up locked it down.

In case you think that Alzner has just gotten lucky to have only been on the ice for one even-strength goal, consider that his greatness has singlehandedly broken advanced stats (...may be hyperbole). Because if you look at the Behind the Net page for the Caps defensemen in the playoffs, something very strange stands out: Alzner and Carlson are succeeding because they are playing by far the weakest competition the Bruins have to offer. Oh... well I guess that explains the one goal against when they are on the ice. Moving on.

Wait, what?

It's unlikely that even the most ardent advanced stats supporter would say that Alzner and Carlson have faced weak competition (although you never know). So what's going on?

Small sample size aside, what's going on is that the strong play of Alzner and Carlson, combined with the not nearly as strong play of the other Caps defense, is actually suppressing the duo's quality of competition metrics. The top pair for the Caps has prevented shots so well while they are on the ice that the Bruins they are facing simply aren't able to pad their Corsi numbers; meanwhile, the Bruins that don't face Alzner and Carlson are able to rack up shot attempts against the Caps' second and third pairs, increasing the "disadvantage" the Bruins top line sees in terms of Corsi differential (the primary method of measuring quality of competition). So by holding their assignments back, and because of the inability of the other two defensive pairs to do the same thing, Alzner and Carlson may appear to be facing the weakest competition of the team when in fact the opposite is likely true.

If you're still not convinced, look at the head-to-head shift charts from games 1-6. In every game the forward line Alzner and Carlson faced most was made up of some combination of Patrice Bergeron, Rich Peverley, Tyler Seguin, Milan Lucic, and David Krejci (and their second most frequent opponent is anyone else from the Bruins top-six forwards). Claude Julien has mixed his lines up a little bit, but it's clear that every game Alzner and Carlson are getting a heavy dose of the Bruins skill players. And they are getting offensive zone starts in the mid-to-low 30% range. And they are doing a much, much better job than anyone else on the Caps.

The next match-up we highlighted before the series began was the battle of the second lines. As expected, Nicklas Backstrom has seen a ton of the Bruins' top six forwards and second defensive pair, Andrew Ference and Johnny Boychuk. Given the depth advantage the Bruins have, it's been imperative for Backstrom's line to produce for the Caps, and at first glance it appears as though that's what has happened. Backstrom has been on-ice for four even strength goals, tied for the team lead, is second in on-ice goal differential per 60, and is the only Caps player with a positive Corsi for the series. Yes, seriously. You'll also notice Jason Chimera is represented well in several of those metrics, a good sign for the second line. The only blemish would seem to be Alexander Semin, who has come through on the power play with a couple of goals but has some pretty brutal even strength metrics.

And yet while these numbers are generally favorable for Backstrom and the second line, it's impossible to overlook the two glaring errors in game 6. On the third Bruins' goal, Backstrom simply stopped skating on the backcheck and let Andrew Ference, the Bruins defenseman we thought would be most exploitable by the second line, beat him to the net, cashing in on a rebound that had sat loose in the slot long enough for Caps fans everywhere to scream, drink a [beverage of choice] and then scream some more. (Er, maybe that was just me.) Point remains, he quit moving his feet and a defenseman that isn't noted for speed or scoring was able to outrace him for a loose puck and pick up a goal on a rebound.

Fast-forward to overtime of the same game and there was Backstrom again, this time with an uncharacteristic turnover that led directly to Tyler Seguin's game winning goal. In fact, each of the last two goals the Bruins scored in a game in which the Caps had a chance to close out the series on home ice were scored against the second line following sloppy play and mental errors. Considering that game six was the only game in which the Caps had the better of the offensive chances, one can only hope that the Caps don't spend all summer thinking about those missed opportunities. The good news is there's one game to make up for it, and if Backstrom can bring his A-game then the Caps will have a good chance to win. (And today both our fearless leader and Alan May said they like Nick Backstrom as the difference-maker for the Caps.)

Of course, there's also one more match-up left to look at, the marquee match-up in the series: Alex Ovechkin vs. Zdeno Chara.

There's no question this was the match-up to watch from the minute this series was set, and so far it hasn't disappointed - with no clear winner emerging. On the one hand, Ovechkin has been kept relatively quiet, held to just two goals; on the other hand, he's tied for the series lead with five points... so he's still making some noise. Obviously Caps fans would love to see more from Ovechkin (like hitting an open net instead of just hitting Chara and Dennis Seidenberg), but he's still produced as much as anyone in the series, and it's tough to ask much more than that.

From the Boston side of it, while he's kept Ovechkin somewhat in check Chara has also been on the ice for just three even strength goals-for compared to four even strength goals-against - and has flat out looked slow on three of those four. On Ovechkin's first goal Brooks Laich flipped the puck high in the air and let Ovechkin chase it down, a footrace in which Chara never really stood much of a chance, and Seidenberg couldn't cover for him. Then there was Laich's breakaway goal in which Chara lost track of Laich, and then a combination of a poor angle and not enough speed allowed Laich all the time he needed to deke Tim Thomas and bank a shot in off the post. And then in game six, Nicklas Backstrom came streaking down the wing with Jason Chimera flying down the other wing. Chara looked like a statue in the slot and Chimera ended up tying the game when Chara couldn't swat Backstrom's sauce out of mid-air.

All of that sounds great to Caps fans, and a little tough for Bruins fans to take (I'd suspect). Of course, Chara also is third in the series in shots on goal (behind Ovechkin and Seguin), and he has that little "game winning goal" thing in his favor (thanks again, Roman Hamrlik). Right now, I don't think you can claim a winner in the most physically intimidating head-to-head match-up of the first round (sit down Raffi, we said head-to-head, not shoulder-to-head). Whichever player gets the better of game seven is likely to carry his team on to round two.

So there you have it. Simple enough, right? Alzner is boss, and there's no reason to think he and Carlson won't be again. Nick Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin have had some great moments, but left Caps fans hoping for more. We shouldn't have expected anything different; the Bruins are a good team and Chara, Seidenberg, and the Bruins' top-six forwards are a tough assignment for anyone. The Caps will have their chances, the Bruins will have theirs. Game seven could go either way, but my prediction is that whichever team wins the majority of the above match-ups will win it all... just like the series started.

Alright boys, show us what you've got.

Game Day Open Thread - Caps @ Bruins, Game 7

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Next Game

Washington Capitals
@ Boston Bruins

Wednesday, Apr 25, 2012, 7:30 PM EDT
TD Garden

Capitals/Bruins: Revisiting the Match-Ups

The Noon Number

Wednesday Caps Clips: Round 1, Game 7 Game Day

Complete Coverage >

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Today's probable netminders:

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	GP	MIN	W	L	GA	GAA	SA	SV	SV%	SO
Braden Holtby	6	386	3	3	14	2.17	216	202	.935	0
Tim Thomas	6	385	3	3	14	2.18	180	166	.922	1

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Have at it, people.

Wednesday Caps Clips: Round 1, Game 7 Game Day

Your savory breakfast links:

' Previews of tonight's Game 7 with the Bruins from Vogs, NHL.com, WaPo, WashTimes, Peerless, Puck 'N Hockey, Hockey Hourly, Sick Unbelievable, RtR and CRtC, and be sure to check out our SB Nation partner Stanley Cup of Chowder for more coverage from the other side of tonight's match-up.

' Notes and assorted whatnot from yesterday's Caps practice:

' In general. [Caps365 video (Rinkside Update, Hunter, Ovechkin, Holtby, Backstrom, Laich, Alzner), NHL.com, WaPo, WashTimes, CSNW, 106.7 The Fan DC, DCEx]

' The Caps have no fear heading back into Boston... [WaPo, and "why should they?" at Sick Unbelievable]

' ... in fact, they're rather loose. [WaPo, DCEx, Fredericksburg.com]

' The Caps are looking for a little R-E-S-P-E-C-T. There's one way to get it, boys. [CSNW]

' Troy Brouwer offers his thoughts on Game 7. [WashTimes]

' It looks like Jeff Schultz may be returning to the lineup in place of John Erskine. [WashTimes]

' Somehow being a fierce competitor and saying the right things makes headlines. [NHL.com]

' TSN put together a nice feature on Holtby. But really, zero? [TSN (video)]

' Two features with Braden. This one's better. [TSN (video)]

' Notes from the B's end of the ice:

' Brad Marchand doesn't care that you know he's a diver. [CSNNE, WaPo, CSNW, DCEx, WashTimes, PHT]

' Patrice Bergeron missed practice yesterday, but will play. [BGlobe, CSNNE, and for Bergeron's less-than-staunch defense of Marchand, CSNNE has you covered]

' Claude Julien is looking forward to tonight's handshakes. [CSNNE]

' Other B's notes. [CSNNE, WaPo]

' The Caps may actually have the psychological edge in this one. [WaPo]

' Buckle up for one more. [WashTimes]

' What hasn't killed the Caps has made them stronger... we think. [CSNW]

' Buy or sell: win or lose, Dale Hunter should be back behind the Caps' bench next fall. [CSNW]

● Lower shot-blocking totals don't necessarily mean what you've been told they mean. [Dump 'n Chase]

● Hit the D and hit 'em hard. [WaPo]

● Mike Knuble on Game 7: "Somebody's going home." Well, actually, everybody is, but I'm not going to correct him. [RMNB, with more on Knuble's take at NHL.com]

● The Caps need to be more... Flyer-like? [HomerMcFanboy]

● Statement time. [KOL]

● On the transformation from run-and-gun to... whatever they are now. [DSP]

● It's time for a signature win from Alex Ovechkin. [FOX Sports]

● Perhaps you've heard that all the pressure is on Boston tonight. Perhaps that's wrong. [RtR]

● Apparently Braden Holtby jerseys are scarce. [WTOP, DCist]

● Braden Holtby paintings, however, may not be. [Capitals Outsider]

● Dmitry Orlov talks about his rookie season. [RMNB]

● Have fun out there. [Capitals 101]

● Mmm... playoffs. [Capitals Outsider]

● The Wizards are bringing back their GM - does that mean anything with regards to George McPhee's job security? [WashTimes]

● On this date in Caps history... who cares? It doesn't matter.

● Heads up: Boston area viewing party tonight at Union Street in Newton, MA. Go be among friendlies if you're stuck in Beantown.

● Notes from Tuesday in Hershey. [Patriot-News]

● Finally, give give give - you might not get another chance (this round).

Capitals Lunchbox, Season 2, Episode 21

In which Alan May, Kellie Cowan and I talk discuss what's gone right and wrong in Games One through Six of Caps/Bruins, Game Seven difference-makers and our predictions for tonight. Dig it. (And if you want to support my Beard-A-Thon growth, click here. Thanks to those who already have!)

Tuesday Caps Clips: Readying For A(nother) Game 7

Your savory breakfast links:

' Notes and assorted whatnot from yesterday out at Kettler:

' In general. [Caps365 video (Rinkside Update, Hunter, Beagle), DCEx]

' Dale Hunter on playing a Game 7: "You have to enjoy it." According to my calculations, winning increases enjoyment by roughly infinity percent. [WaPo, CSNW, WashTimes, PHT]

' John Carlson says they know what they have to do to win Game 7. Hopefully "knowing" translates well into "doing." [Caps365 (video), WaPo]

' The Caps keep taking swings trying to fell the giant oak tree that is Zdeno Chara. [CSNW]

' John Walton on calling an epic Game 7, from back in the (Hershey) day. [Capitals Voice]

' Notes from the B's end of the ice:

' Congrats to Patrice Bergeron on being named a Selke Finalist. Hopefully he'll have lots of free time to work on an acceptance speech starting Thursday. [CSNNE, NESN]

' The Bruins' top line showed up for Game 6. [CSNNE]

' Boston is hoping the extra day off will help heal the wounded (and we certainly join them in wishing for a speedy recovery for Joe Corvo). [NESN]

' No one is quite willing to go as far as to say "Brad Marchand isn't a diver," are they? [ESPN Boston]

' Why Claude Julien sat Shawn Thornton in Game 6. [NHL.com]

' The B's had great Game 7 success last year, but that was then and this is now. [NHL.com, BHerald]

' To hell with the history. [WaPo, DSP]

' Boston's right there for the taking. So, uh, take 'em. [WashTimes]

' Just a super profile of Karl Alzner and his emergence from relative obscurity to... well, slightly less obscurity (which is just how we like him). [NHL.com]

● Tons of neat probability-related nuggets regarding Game 7 for the numbers folks. [WhoWins]

● It looks like there may be a lot of Cup virgins at the dance after Round 1. Sounds like a party to which the Caps should be invited. [Dump 'n Chase]

● Block party with no potato salad, y'all. [WashTimes, DCEx]

● Oh, hey, a Game 7. Missed you last year, dear friend. (But not really.) [WaPo]

● Jay Beagle is all about business. [WaPo, PHT]

● Say, Keith Aucoin sure is getting some nice minutes. [Sick, Unbelievable]

● Tim Thomas has a favorite Alex Ovechkin story (which he'd almost certainly title Atlex Shrugged). [RMNB]

● Speaking of the captain, he still knows how to celebrate. Having fun is fun. [RMNB]

● This actually appears on a legitimate newspaper's website (and perhaps in print as well): "[I]f you adopt Alexander Semin, he’ll just lounge around on the front porch, licking his privates." [Gazette]

● Looking ahead to Game 7. [CSNW (video, video), WashTimes (video)]

● Is it time to sit Dennis Wideman down in favor of Dmitry Orlov? [Capitals Outsider]

● Pierre McGuire is impressed by the Caps. Of course, Pierre McGuire is impressed by just about everything. [CSNW]

● Scott Burnside is also impressed with the transformation, but there's one glaring inaccuracy that sorta sticks out; see if you can identify it. [ESPN]

● Of course Mike Green scored on Earth Day, which makes us stronger believers than ever in "Earth Day Every Day." [WashTimes]

● Some love for a huge PK. [OFB]

● Nicklas Backstrom knows he made a mistake on the Game 6 game-winner (and we can only assume he knows he could've backchecked harder on the Boston's third tally). [WashTimes]

● Game 6 did big ratings numbers locally. [D.C. Sports Bog]

● John Wall and Wizards teammates were at the game on Sunday, which... nah, too easy. [D.C. Sports Bog, Ted's Take]

● Anguished Caps Fan is anguished. [SB Nation DC]

● Braden Holtby: impressive, but hardly unprecedented. [The Sports Blitz]

● Boycott Boston, at least for another couple of days. [BrooksLaichyear]

● Have faith. Because really, what else is there? [Capital Spirit]

● Maybe it's a good thing Game 7 isn't tonight, given a relatively painful history on this date that includes a double-overtime loss to the Isles in 1993, a quadruple-overtime loss to the Pens in 1996 and a double-overtime loss to the B's in 1998. Seriously, kick rocks, April 24 (though 1988 and 2009 were cool).

● Here's your daily call to beardly charitable action. You don't want to risk the Caps losing and it having been because you didn't give, do you? Give $8. Or 28 cents. Or 19 dimes. Or 70 nickels. Whatever - every little bit helps.

● Finally, happy 52nd birthday to Darren Veitch and happy 41st to Ken Klee.