For well over a month, the Washington Capitals have been without a head coach, and they don't seem to be in much of a rush to change that, even with the draft, and more importantly the start of free agency, fast-approaching. General Manager George McPhee has said that his coaching search might take until August, and noted recently that prior NHL experience isn't necessarily a prerequisite for the next Caps bench boss.
But what if you were the one making the decision? Would NHL experience matter? What about a track record of winning? How about offense- vs. defense-first? After the jump, we've got a handful of questions that may help you decide whom to hope GMGM picks as Dale Hunter's successor; McPhee may be taking a while to make up his mind, but you'll have your guy in just a few minutes...
From Alzner to Wideman, we took a look at and graded the 2011-12 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign and who might be back in 2012-13. Now that we've covered the players, it's time to take a look at the architect of the team: General Manager George McPhee.
George McPhee
General Manager / Washington Capitals
5-9
170ish
July 2, 1958
14
In keeping with club policy, financial terms of the deal have not been disclosed.
6.55
7.33
[Since a general manager's season is hard to quantify beyond a team's regular season numbers and projections about prospects and draft choices, we figured we'd have a roundtable discussion on what McPhee did well and what he may not have done so well. Feel free to weigh in on any of these points in the comments.]
Last summer George McPhee brought in Troy Brouwer, Roman Hamrlik, Jeff Halpern, and Joel Ward, seemingly in an attempt to make the Capitals a better defensive team and more difficult to play against. At the start of the season, it looked like this was the best Caps roster we'd seen in quite a long time, but obviously things didn't turn out like that over the course of the regular season. What went wrong, was the chemistry wrong, were the players not as good as we thought, was it bad luck?
Rob Parker: Some of it was certainly bad luck, better goaltending in the late fall and Bruce Boudreau probably isn't fired when he was. Further, the injuries were undoubtedly bad luck, specifically the one to Backstrom. It's hard to plan for that kind of thing. But the underlying problems were still there; I said a coaching change should have been made after the Tampa Bay series and we've long noted how much trouble the Caps would be in if Backstrom went down with injury, so I don't think you can say it was entirely luck. I think it's easy now to say that the team wasn't as good as most people thought they were, but that's also not a complete explanation. Alexander Semin and Alex Ovechkin both had poor individual years, by the standards they've set for themselves. But missing Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Green for a long time is going to hurt any team. Carlson didn't play well most of the year, but in the playoffs he proved he's still a good player. The skater additions were never guys that were going to be huge impact guys. They were for depth and were mostly role players so it really shouldn't have had a huge impact on the overall make-up of the team. I'm not a huge believer in chemistry, so I don't think that's where you can point the finger. At the end of the day I think it's a mix of "not enough talent" and "bad luck."
JP: I go back-and-forth on the talent issue. On the one hand, I think the general, national perception that the Caps are stacked is inaccurate. But at the same time, you look at the lineup and you have a couple of elite wings, an elite pivot, enough defensively-responsible grinders with scoring upside to fill out a good third-line, and enough pluggers to be set on the fourth-line up front. On the back-end, it looked like (and, for the most part was) a solid one-through-seven. Then you had an elite goaltender and an up-and-comer in net (and another behind him). On paper, this was "the best Caps roster we'd seen in quite a long time."
But, of course, the games aren't played on paper, and watching the season play out, there was the bad luck (not just the injuries, but the "puck luck" as well, early on - a few more saves in November and Bruce Boudreau might still be coaching this squad), but it was clear that the second-line center was and is still a gaping void (but really wasn't any worse when Backstrom went down - the drop-off from Marcus Johansson to Mathieu Perreault, if there was one, was minimal), and they perhaps lacked another skill forward. Put another way, how many legitimate top-six forwards did this team have? Ovechkin, Backstrom and Semin, sure. Brouwer and/or Brooks Laich can play the role of "third best forward" on a top-two line adequately, but when Backstrom went down, this team was playing with a pair of Alexes and then a triage unit on the scoring lines. They simply had a talent deficit. That's where they weren't as good as we'd perhaps thought, and it all comes back to the second-line center.
Kareem E.: What went wrong is that, for whatever reason, the magic that the Young Guns had is gone. They're still good, but they're not going to ever produce 370 points among them like they did in 2009-10. And it was glaringly evident after last season that this core group could not (and will never) replicate those sublime performances in the playoffs when more was on the line. It also didn't help that McPhee ignored the 2C position yet again. Instead of addressing those two pressing issues, McPhee focused on on building out bottom 6 depth, a recipe that didn't pan out the way we wanted it to this year. Add to it an ill-timed mid-season coaching change and bringing in a new coach who didn't match the style of play to the players he had and we get what we get: another disappointing exit from the playoffs to a decent-but-nothing-special Rangers team. Just like last year vs Tampa. And the year before vs Montreal. So this wasn't bad luck. This was the result of a flawed roster coupled with the failure to make tough (and somewhat obvious) personnel and coaching decisions last offseason.
Unlike many past off-seasons, there are several big money soon-to-be free agents on the Caps roster, meaning there could be more flexibility to make major roster changes. Having seen how the last season played out, what does George McPhee need to do this summer in order to right the ship and get the Capitals back on top of the Southeast Division (or whatever division they play in next season) and the Eastern Conference? Which guys should stay, which guys should go, and what kind of new blood should the team look for?
RP: I think the two areas of need for this team are talent in the top 6 and speed. The Caps aren't a particularly fast team, and if they want to play that up-tempo game that McPhee has talked about then they'll need more speed throughout the lineup. You look at New Jersey and Los Angeles and both of those teams had a lot more speed and had some very good top-6 depth. The Caps have enough to slug their way through another regular season, but if they want to really be contenders they need to find a way to put together two dangerous lines. I think Semin should be and will be gone, and he's the highest paid free agent on the team. Green should stay for at least a year to see if he can get over the injury problems, and I think he will stay. The rest of the free agents are role players, and with McPhee already telling Knuble and Halpern they won't be back I think we'll see some turnover in the bottom 6. Ideally the Caps focus on bringing in guys that can skate and play both ends of the ice. They don't necessarily all need to be 60+ point guys, but if you can get some players that can play tough minutes and still produce offensively then you help everyone else out throughout the lineup. Right now it looks like outside Backstrom the guys that can score can't/don't really play defense and the guys that play defense don't give you much in the way of offense. Building a good two-way second line would be a huge boon for the team.
JP: I talked about the skill deficit among the top-six above, and if Semin leaves, that just exacerbates the problem (which in no way should be construed as me advocating re-signing Semin). I'd think they need to add, at an absolute minimum, two legitimate top-six forwards, with one of those being a center in order to be a contender, whether that happens this summer or during the season. And whereas in the past I thought they could get away with a second-line center who was perhaps a better fit as a third-line center on a contending team (think Antoine Vermette), with the potential loss of possession-driver Alex Semin and Nicklas Backstrom's concussion concerns, what they need is a second-line center who is good enough to fill-in on the top line. And while I've got my wishlist out, I'll add a mobile bottom-four defenseman to replace Dennis Wideman (assuming he won't return) and insure against another prolonged Mike Green absence.
Becca H: I agree that addressing the top-six is a top priority for the summer, especially if Semin leaves (which it appears he probably will) - the team just has too many guys who in a good year are putting up around 20 goals, and if Ovechkin has another slumping season or Backstrom deals with more injuries the number of guys who can produce at a high level is down to zero. A center who can fill in on that top line when needed and another scoring winger, maybe two, should be a focus.
Agree with JP that another mobile defenseman should also be on the list, as Mike Green - who should stay at least one more year - still needs to prove that he can stay healthy for an entire season. I think the continued development of Dmitry Orlov and what should be a bigger role on the team will help fill that void a bit, but the Caps have very little depth on defense beyond him and the rotating seventh defensemen of John Erskine and Jeff Schultz. Gee, Ryan Suter would look purty in red...
Beyond all that, and at a slightly lower priority level, would be some sort of veteran presence. No, the "young guns" aren't really "young" anymore (as far as pro athletes go), but with the losses of Mike Knuble and Jeff Halpern (and probably Wideman) there doesn't seem to be that experienced voice of someone who has been there before. Obviously not being in the locker room I'm not sure how much of an impact someone like that does or doesn't have... but considering how much players, coaches and GMs talk about the importance of that voice, I have to believe it's at least a little bit of a necessity.
The other major storyline from the season was coaching. Things were so bad that the most successful coach in franchise history (by win percentage) was fired before December, replaced by a franchise legend. Given the benefits of hindsight, how do you feel about that coaching change now?
RP: I've said all along that I wish they'd have made the change over the summer when McPhee could do a more comprehensive coaching search, allow the coach more time to implement his system, and allow the coach to give input on personnel decisions, insofar as that is practical and appropriate. By waiting until the season was underway it really limited McPhee's options (of course, if he knew Dale Hunter would be the next coach then maybe options weren't important to him) and made Hunter's job much harder. As far as the transition to Hunter, I think everyone is happy that the Caps were competitive in 14 straight playoff games, but I don't think that should obscure how bad the offense was during his tenure. Breaking bad habits seemed to be a focus of Hunter's, and to that end he was successful (though we'll see how much that carries forward), but I don't think having an inept offense and trying to win coin flip games is a recipe for success these days. The change had to happen, but I think it could have been handled better and I don't think the on-ice results were ideal.
JP: Yep. We touched on this quite a bit in our season-ending roundtable. It's pretty straightforward to me - a change needed to be made and by the time they made it, they were left building the plane while it was already rolling down the runway for takeoff. You get what you get at that point. Playing "coin-flips" against more-talented teams like Boston and the Rangers is all well and good, but why give Carolina and the Islanders that same chance? I don't think we saw everything Dale Hunter was capable of as a coach, but I think we saw enough, to be blunt.
KE: I agree with Rob and JP. The way this all played out, it did not, in my opinion, make George McPhee look good. Hiring a coach one third of the way through the season - one who didn't have any intention of staying past the season AND who instituted a completely different style of play - was a recipe for underachievement. The coaching change should have occurred last off-season.
Then, before the NHL season was over and Caps fans got a chance to really evaluate Dale Hunter, he stepped down and returned to the family business, running the London Knights. How does that decision sit with you?
RP: Taking all the things we've been told at face value, I'm fine with the decision. In fact, I think it may be a blessing in disguise. I was worried that the split between Hunter and the Caps would be messy (it was always inevitable) and tarnish the reputation or relationship of a franchise legend. By splitting the way they did all parties save face, the successful playoff run allows Hunter to leave holding his head high, and now the Caps can search for a coach that may play a style more suited for success in the contemporary NHL. If Hunter's lessons on defense and teamwork can carry forward, that will be gravy, but I suspect those lessons will only last as long as the new coach makes them last.
JP: The way things ended, I'm left with the feeling that Hunter took the job as something of a favor to McPhee and never really intended to stick it out long-term. Did he ever look truly comfortable? Or happy? I think the split has the potential to be a very good thing for the franchise, but only if they make the right hire next.
What kind of coach do you think GMGM should try to find for the team going forward? What are the traits that are most important to you?
RP: Ideally he'd get a coach with some level of NHL experience, but that's not the most crucial aspect; I do think the new coach certainly needs to have some experience coaching professionals, though. If I got to pick my perfect coach they'd have Dale's calm demeanor; I think that aspect has been overlooked in terms of how it helped the team maintain an even keel. I would also prefer a coach that is more focused on systems and X's and O's rather than a more purely motivational coach (though all coaches have to be able to do both to a degree). I'd like to see an aggressive team that plays good defense. I want a heavy forecheck and a team that wants to skate forward, not backward, but is always cognizant of their defensive responsibilities. Of course, every coach available has some warts (or they'd already be hired and named Mike Babcock), so George McPhee will have to choose which warts he can live with.
BH: I'm with Rob (and Mike Knuble) in that the next coach should be a blend of what we've already seen in recent years. Someone who knows how to light a fire under the stars without putting off the grinders, who tries to motivate but not at the expense of the system, someone who can find a balance between the plodding defensive style of Hunter and the up-tempo, high risk, high reward style of early Boudreau. He needs to be able to maintain the sense of team that these guys had at the end of last season without sacrificing the stuff that makes hockey exciting.
...I'm not sure such a coach exists, to be honest - particularly among the guys who have NHL experience - so here's hoping GMGM is able to unearth a diamond in the rough so to speak.
JP: Priority number one has to be maximizing their return on investment on Alex Ovechkin. Everything else - including winning - will flow from that. Get someone fresh, someone smart, someone prepared, and someone that knows the difference between accountability and punishment. And for the love of all that is holy, get these guys having fun again.
As far as the timing of the hiring, what dates or events is it most important to have a coach in place for? Should GMGM pick a coach that fits the roster or find the right coach and then mold the roster to fit the coach? And what kind of input do you think the new coach should have regarding personnel decisions (draft, FA signings, trades) this summer?
JP: The sooner the better, all else equal, as it wouldn't be bad to have his input around the draft and certainly around the open of free agency. But it's likely that McPhee has a vision of the direction in which he wants to take the franchise and will hire a coach that conforms to that rather than trying to mold his roster and organization to his new coach, so really, it might not matter when they make the hire. Hell, they might not even start the season on time, so there's no rush. Kidding. I think.
RP: I'd like to have the coach in place by development camp. Even July 1 isn't a drop-dead date for me. I don't think the coach needs to, or in most cases should, have a ton of influence over personnel decisions. I think assembling a team and coaching a team are different skill-sets so you don't need the coach to put the team together. Obviously the coach and GM have to be on the same page, but I think if George McPhee knows what kind of team he wants to have he'll be able to pursue the right kind of players on July 1 without knowing exactly who the coach is. But development camp is the first time the new coach gets to work with players, albeit non-NHL players, and start getting players familiar with the system. Some of the players in development camp will (hopefully) be playing for the Caps within a couple years, and the Caps have tried to have a degree of systems synergy with the Hershey Bears over the last several seasons. It's not the end of the world if it takes longer to sign the right coach, but that's where my preference lies.
BH: I'd agree with both Rob and JP that early July is as late as I'm comfortable going. July 1 would be great because, while I agree that the coach shouldn't have a ton of influence over personnel, an organization with a lot of question marks (or at least one major one) isn't going to be the draw that a team with an established coach and system is going to be. Players, particularly the ones the Caps should be targeting, aren't going to want to commit to a team whose style and personality is completely unknown.
But if not by July 1, by the following week with the start of Development Camp I'd like to see the guy in place. As Rob mentioned, the synergy between the Caps and Bears has been key in making the transition smoother from one level to another, but it's also a time when new players to the organization begin acclimating themselves, when the prospects are given a sense of what will be expected of them when they try out in the fall or a few years down the line. And to a lesser degree it's a chance for the new coach to get used to the team and the area or even for any veterans still in town to maybe get to know the guy a little before the summer.
Finally, it's been a tumultuous and busy year for George McPhee, so how would you grade him for the season? What was his best move on the year, and what was his worst move (or non-move)?
RP: I think it's easy to say the best move was signing Tomas Vokoun, but that was a bit of a gift that fell into his lap and at the end of the year Vokoun played all of zero playoff games for the Caps. The team may not have made the playoffs if not for some of his strong stretches of play during the regular season, but considering how it all worked out it's hard to say that was a big impact move. I'd say the best move came last summer when he stuck to his guns and got Karl Alzner to sign a two year deal for a 1.285 million dollar cap hit. It's unfortunate for Alzner, as he's certainly out-performing that deal, but it's a great deal for the Caps and it allows them to spend more money in other places to try to round out the team.
The worst deal was the deadline inactivity. I'm glad that he didn't try to give up a lot of future assets for a rental, but the team was clearly not good enough to make a serious run for the Cup. I would love to have seen McPhee make a move one way or the other: either put together a package that could have gotten Jeff Carter or start moving some of the UFA players. Carter isn't a rental, he's locked in on a great deal so it's a move that helps now and in the future. With Carter, I think the Caps immediately would have become a favorite in the East, but that ship sailed. I don't think it's fair to criticize him for not moving Vokoun based on Vokoun's late season injury, though that does make it look worse, but at the time we knew Vokoun wasn't enough to get the team to the Cup and he could have brought a solid return. The same goes for Wideman and Semin. People will say "they probably don't make the playoffs" without Vokoun/Semin/Wideman, but I still would have liked to see some movement to help build for the future. Ultimately, McPhee didn't do anything to bring the team closer to the Cup, now or in the future.
JP: Hard to argue with the Alzner deal - what a stud. But since you went there, I'll go with the Semyon Varlamov trade. McPhee turned an RFA who was very unlikely to sign into a first- and a second-round pick (memo to Colorado: you could have signed him to a deal worth over $4 million per year and only given up a first and a third), and still had the organizational depth at the position to not miss a beat (Vokoun deal notwithstanding). No matter what Varlamov does in his career and what becomes of those picks, that deal itself was a big win.
On the flip-side, I agree that not trading Wideman was the worst move, and I'd have said that before he was awful against the Bruins and after he was pretty good against the Rangers. With Green returning, the Caps had a "puck-moving" All-Star blueliner who was (presumably) going to walk in July - probably the most sought-after commodity on the market - and they held onto him. I'd also give an honorable mention to not being able to convince Evgeny Kuznetsov to come over for next season (despite the great lure of Alex Ovechkin and whatnot), but in many ways that whole situation is McPhee as a victim of his own success - if the prospect wasn't as good as he is, he wouldn't have had such an attractive option in Russia. C'est la vie... and stay tuned.
KE: I am lukewarm to McPhee's performance as a GM since the lockout. Nothing changed my opinion based on this season. He's not bad, but he is not a world-beater. Sure, the Caps are one of the few teams to make the playoffs five years in a row, but Ovechkin and Backstrom fell in his lap and it would be difficult to not be an upper-half-of-the-NHL team with those two players. That said, I'm not a fan of sticking with the Young Gun strategy and thought that one of them (or even two, if the price was right) could have been moved following the Tampa collapse in 2011. But no trades were made and no message was sent. I also wasn't a fan of keeping Boudreau around to start the season either, which we've already discussed. My final contention with McPhee's season was standing pat at the deadline That really sealed it for me. An overly risk averse profile coupled with overvaluing players within the organization has meant missing out on opportunities to make bold moves. We saw Boston in 2011 and LA this year upgrade throughout the season on their way to Cup runs. The Caps sat on their bums and did nothing. Skeptics of my ideology will say "at least the Caps won't get fleeced", but my take is if you know that a team is missing central pieces then roll the dice every once in a while. Not in DC though. McPhee has continued to stick to the same risk-averse script....and the annual spring-time heartbreaks continue. (Folks, it won't change next year either if McPhee is steadfast in his approach.) Ultimately, I would grade McPhee's season a "C", or in Japers Rink terms, a 4.
BH: The best move in my mind was the Varlamov trade, hands down. It wasn't the fleecing some people thought it was, because I think the Avs got a good young goalie who will help them in the future, but the Caps were able to take someone who wasn't going to play in the organization and pick up two high picks in a potentially deep draft this weekend. It was exactly the right move for the team, present and future.
As for worst move/non-move... at the time I defended the lack of movement on Wideman and Semin because I think unloading guys at the deadline smacks of giving up on the season and I'm not a fan of that. And surprise, surprise, I was more optimistic about the team's chances than others (and still believe a win over the Rangers - which wasn't exactly a far-fetched notion - catapults this team into the Stanley Cup Finals). With the benefit of hindsight, though, knowing that a) neither would perform well in the playoffs, b) both would likely be gone on July 1 and c) the Caps would be bounced in Round 2, I can see why that was ultimately a poor decision. I also would have liked to see GMGM take a run at someone like Carter at the deadline, but I'm not so sure he didn't - it takes two teams to make a trade, just like two parties are needed to sign free agents, and not being in the room with GMGM at the time, we can't pretend to know what was and wasn't offered for whom.
All in all I'd say GMGM earned a solid B for his work this year. I think the pieces he brought in over the summer were good, strong additions to the team. That all of them didn't entirely work out is not, in my mind, a knock on his performance overall; the Vokoun deal was lucky but he was smart enough to be in a position to take advantage of it, the Ward deal paid off in the playoffs, Halpern and Hamrlik brought some good veteran experience to the team - it was all good, on paper. And that's really all a GM can do, examine what the team theoretically should look like and hope that the coach motivates a performance and the players respond.
From Alzner to Wideman, we're taking a look at and grading (please read the criteria below) the 2011-12 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2012-13. Last up, Dennis Wideman.
Dennis Wideman
#6 / Defenseman / Washington Capitals
6-0
198
Mar 20, 1983
NHL Seasons: 8
Contract Status: $3,937,500 cap hit in 2011-12; UFA summer 2012
'10-'11 Rink Wrap: 6.92 rating
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
PPA
GWG
SOG
PCT
TOI/G
Regular Season
82
11
35
46
-8
46
4
16
3
175
6.3
23:54
Playoffs
14
0
3
3
-7
2
0
2
0
23
0.0
20:44
Key Stat: Wideman racked up 20 of his 46 regular season points on the power play, trailing only Alex Ovechkin's 23 for tops on the team.
Interesting Stat: With just three points in the playoffs, Wideman tied a career low for postseason production - with the previous 3-point postseason coming in just six games.
The Good: Wideman's first season in Washington was a trade- and injury-shortened one, so it was hard to tell if the Caps would see the puck-moving power play quarterback they'd hoped to acquire at last year's trade deadline. After a summer of rehabbing from his severe leg injury, though, it looked like Wideman hadn't missed a step - in fact, he started off the season red hot, registering a point in each of the team's first seven games and eleven of the first fifteen en route to an 8-goal, 30-point first half. Those impressive numbers not only led the Caps but put him among the League leaders, as well, and resulted in his first career invitation to the All-Star Game.
Despite a bit of a production drop-off in the second half (which was as much about the team's offense trailing off as anything else), Wideman still finished the season in the NHL's top 15 in both goals and assists and top 10 in points among all NHL defensemen. His goal, assist and point totals were all the second-highest totals of his career, and he set a new career high in game-winning goals (including this beauty).
He didn't just set (or fall just short of) personal highs - Wideman's offensive production was among the team lead, as well, in a season where offense was hard to come by. His 35 assists led the team, with 16 of them coming on the power play - a mark that was tied with Nicklas Backstrom for the team lead - and he finished tied with Marcus Johansson for the fourth-highest point total on team. His 175 shots-on-goal led all Caps' defensemen. He also logged the most power play time per game among the team's defensemen, with the third-highest PP GFON/60 among players who logged a significant amount of time with the extra man. Rounding out his special teams acumen was a significant amount of time shorthanded, as well, with the team's third-highest ice time.
The Bad: As productive as he was offensively,there were times when Wideman appeared to be something of a liability in his own end... which is kind of the opposite of what you're going for at that position. His minus-8 rating was second-worst rating among Caps defensemen, a rating which at times reflected his poor - and sometimes downright head-scratching - decision-making with the puck. By the end of the season he had been on for 86 goals-against, second-most on the team behind only John Carlson, almost a third of the team's total goals-against for the season. At even strength, Wideman finished with the team's second-highest GAON/60 (and the highest in the playoffs).
Wideman turned into something of a scapegoat during the postseason - particularly in the first round - as he seemed destined to be on the ice whenever that big, heartbreaking goal was scored on the Caps. He finished the fourteen game run having been on for 13 goals-against, including eight in that catastrophic first series alone (when the team only gave up 15 total), and was a team-worst minus-7.
The fact that he was on for so many goals-against certainly wasn't helped by the fact that his hand in goals-for declined dramatically. With just three points in the playoffs he tied a career low (one that was established in a postseason in which he played only six games), registering just a single assist against the Bruins and two more assists in the second-round loss to the Rangers. And while two of his three playoff points were on the power play, the fact that he wasn't able to quarterback the team to a more substantial rate of production with the extra man certainly didn't help their chances of getting out of the second round.
The Vote: Rate Wideman below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.
The Discussion: On a team whose offense struggled at times, which stuck out to you more - Wideman's offensive production or the fact that he was occasionally a defensive liability? With Dmitri Orlov waiting in the wings, can the Caps afford to release Wideman this summer or should they try to retain him? If it's the latter, what type of contract would you be comfortable with? Finally, if he sticks around, what will it take for him to earn a 10 rating next year?
If you've been following SBN Hockey's network-wide mock draft, you know that the Caps are on the clock, which means we're on the clock for them.
Earlier in the week, we selected Zemgus Girgensons with the 11th pick. One year ago, drafting in the 26th slot, we selected Scott Mayfield (he ended up going to the Islanders with the 34th pick in the actual draft, and the Caps, of course, traded the 26th pick to Chicago in exchange for Troy Brouwer; the Blackhawks drafted Phillip Danault with the pick). Two years ago, also drafting 26th overall, we took Brock Nelson (he ended up going to the Isles at 30th in the real draft; Caps pick Evgeny Kuznetsov was off the board already).
This time around, we're pleased to select... left wing Pontus Åberg out of Djugardens of the Swedish Elite League.
Here he is in action:
Per Corey Pronman, who ranks Aberg as the 9th-best prospect in the draft:
Pontus Aberg has had a nice year over in Sweden from a counting numbers perspective for an 18-year-old, logging over 10 minutes per game, which is good for a player his age in that league. He got off to a hot start, but injuries impeded him somewhat in the second half of the year. Aberg is a plus skater with very good acceleration off his first few steps and a pretty dangerous top speed. He also has a plus shot which will drive a decent portion of his offensive value and allow him to maintain an above league average shooting percentage over his career. His shot is pretty accurate with good technique on his release, his one-timers fly off his stick with remarkable speed, and Aberg has the makings of a dangerous power play triggerman. Aberg has great hands and can show some flash in that area in terms of being able to make great individual plays in creating space for himself. His true strength isn't about being a dangerous puck controller, though, as it is playing a speed game and getting the puck to the net. At times, he can move the puck around at an average level, but he doesn't overly impress with his vision. Aberg also needs to work on his defense, although with his on-ice work ethic, there is reason to believe the finer points of his defensive game will come along. Aberg's physical game also likely tops out as below-average because of his size but he does work hard and has a gritty edge to his game.
And at midseason, here's what TSN had to say:
Made Sweden's world junior team only to suffer a shoulder injury in a pre-exhibition match against Canada on a hard hit from Jamie Oleksiak, knocking him out of action for a month. He's already playing in the Swedish Elite League. Strengths: A very creative player, good in tight spaces, able to spin away from trouble, has a quick, heavy wrist shot and slap shot. Also a good puck handler, able to come up with passing options. A conscientious two-way player with good balance on his skates and is a strong, natural goal scorer who likes to shoot. Weaknesses: Not overly large, his durability may be a concern unless he bulks up even more. He could use his teammates a little more. NHL upside: Has been compared to Marcus Johansson and has the offensive tools to be a top six forward who takes care of his own end.
Not knowing what the Caps' vision for the future is in terms of style of play, picking a conscientious, speedy forward who likes to shoot doesn't seem like a bad idea at all. And heck, you can never have too many Swedes...
From Alzner to Wideman, we're taking a look at and grading (please read the criteria below) the 2011-12 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2012-13. Next up, Joel Ward.
Joel Ward
#42 / Right Wing / Washington Capitals
6-2
205
Dec 02, 1980
4 and a cup of coffee
$3,000,000 cap hit through 2014-15; UFA summer 2015
Previous Rink Wraps: N/A
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
PPA
GWG
SOG
PCT
TOI/G
Regular Season
73
6
12
18
12
20
0
0
0
79
7.6
12:26
Playoffs
14
1
4
5
3
6
0
0
1
12
8.3
10:57
Key Stat: Ward's 12:26 of ice time per game was a 27% decrease from his 2010-11 total of 17:04.
Interesting Stat: Ward's 18 regular-season points all came at even-strength and were split evenly among goals and primary and secondary assists, with six of each.
The Good: In many ways, Ward did what was expected of him this season - he played tough minutes and played them well. Among forwards only Brooks Laich and Matt Hendricks both started a lower percentage of even-strength shifts in the offensive zone and faced tougher competition, and not a single forward on the team had a better on-ice goals-against average than Ward (who posted an even relative Corsi and a team-best plus-12 rating). Why he wasn't deployed more frequently overall, but especially in a defensive-zone specialist role is one of the season's great mysteries, especially since he, Laich and Jason Chimera seemed to have all the makings of an outstanding shutdown line early on.
But defense alone does not a $3-million forward make, and if Ward disappointed with his scoring totals (he potted three-fifths as many goals as he did the season before), perhaps look to the guys behind the bench and not the player - Ward actually improved upon last season's goal and primary assist rates at even-strength, and upped his even-strength goal total (to a modest half-dozen), despite consistently playing a bottom-six role. And whereas Ward scored five power-play goals for the 2010-11 Predators, he got just 10:26 of extra-man time for the Caps all season.
Of course, the prevailing narrative is that the Caps got Joel Ward for the playoffs, and, in the first round, he delivered, pointing in Games 5 and 6 and then doing this...
The Bad: Ward - who by George McPhee's own admission was overpaid by around 15% on the free agent market - was made an example of in Bruce Boudreau's new-found accountability regime as he was scratched for missing a team meeting (one of the last tough decisions Boudreau would end up making for the Caps). His per-game and raw scoring numbers were the worst he's posted since becoming an NHL regular, and while the reduced ice time certainly played its part in that, there's a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg going on here - two goals over his final 61 games is atrocious, even at 12 minutes per night. Ward missed seven games with an injury late in the season, and perhaps there were injury and/or conditioning concerns earlier in the season that hampered his productivity (new deal complacency?), but whatever it was, 2011-12 was largely a lost season for Ward.
Oh, and this happened.
The Vote: Rate Ward below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.
The Discussion: There are probably few if any Caps who looking forward to a new coach as much as Ward, who will get a fresh start in his second year in D.C. How should the new coach utilize Ward differently from how Boudreau and Dale Hunter did? What's Ward's role on a championship-contending team? What does Ward himself need to do to find success in Year Two? Finally, what will it take for him to earn a 10 rating next year?
If you've been following SBN Hockey's network-wide mock draft, you know that the Caps are on the clock, which means we're on the clock for them.
One year ago, drafting in the 26th slot, we selected Scott Mayfield (he ended up going to the Islanders with the 34th pick in the actual draft, and the Caps, of course, traded the 26th pick to Chicago in exchange for Troy Brouwer; the Blackhawks drafted Phillip Danault with the pick). Two years ago, also drafting 26th overall, we took Brock Nelson (he ended up going to the Isles at 30th in the real draft; Caps pick Evgeny Kuznetsov was off the board already).
This time around, we're pleased to select... center Zemgus Girgensons (@zemgus94) out of Dubuque of the USHL.
Here's Girgensons at the 2012 NHL Combine (via hockeyprospectTV):
Per Corey Pronman, who ranks Girgensons as the 14th-best prospect in the draft:
Girgensons had a quality second USHL season and has a good chance to be the highest draft selection to ever come from Latvia. Girgensons is a great do-it-all player who can create offense from his natural skill and still be a fan favorite because of his intangibles. Girgensons is an above-average skater with a technically sound stride and is pretty agile in tight spaces. His top speed isn't overly dangerous but still good meaning he will be able to skate with pros. Girgensons is a dangerous puck handler who I'd say is above-average to plus in that area as he can certainly make players miss and at times he can be a pretty flashy player. At other times, though, Girgensons can be a straight-ahead gritty type of power forward who drives the net, gets in people's faces after the whistle, and will lay out big hit after big hit. He also shows a diligent work ethic at both ends, and is very responsible and smart defensively for his age, which has garnered trust from his coach to play him in a lot of tough defensive minutes. Girgensons is pretty aware with the puck with a pass-first mentality. While I haven't seen high-end playmaking from him, he can certainly move the puck around and has pretty good vision.
Our SBN partner, Hockey Wilderness, had this take on him:
Strengths: Seen as one of the best two-way forwards available in the draft ... brings a nice display of size, skill, and grit ... strong skater with a smooth and long stride ... possesses great footwork and agility ... protects the puck very well with his body and reach ... tough physical presence in that he cannot be removed from the puck ... has the tenacity, desire and grit ... can absolutely rifle a booming shot to the net ... owns a soft touch which allows him to work magic with the puck ... attacks the net often ... good playmaking abilities ... excellent hockey sense ... strong center in all 3 zones ... tough and competitive ... has an outstanding work ethic, both on and off the ice
Weaknesses: May not be a top-two center at the NHL level ... some scouts question his offensive instincts and ability to create scoring opportunities ... still needs to develop his game to be effective at the NHL, but that will take some time
And at midseason, here's what TSN had to say:
Poised to become the first Latvian-born prospect to be a first-round NHL draft choice. There's no worry about him adjusting to North American life as he's played in the U.S. since he was 15. Slated to attend the University of Vermont next season. Strengths: A smart, all-around player with size and skating ability. Good hands, heavy shot, tough and competitive, can play any style of game. A safe pick, he will play in the NHL. Weaknesses: Some scouts question his offensive instincts and ability to create scoring opportunities. May not be a top-two center at the NHL level. NHL upside: Has been compared to Colton Gillies, but with more offensive upside. The type of player that will help an NHL club win a playoff series by playing a tough, two-way game. May have the intangibles to be a top two centre.
Girgensons isn't the sexiest pick ever, but he's got good size and appears to have a good mix of skill and grit, offensive ability and defensive responsibility, and, of course, plays a position of need. The Caps haven't been afraid to draft out of the USHL in recent years (though with just one big win and limited success overall); if this was our pick, we might look to that League again and at Zemgus Girgensons.
From Alzner to Wideman, we're taking a look at and grading (please read the criteria below) the 2011-12 season for every player who laced 'em up for the Caps for a significant number of games during the campaign, with an eye towards 2012-13. Next up, Alexander Semin.
Alexander Semin
#28 / Left Wing / Washington Capitals
6-2
205
Mar 03, 1984
7
$6,700,000 cap hit through 2011-12; UFA summer 2012
'10-'11 Rink Wrap: 5.86 rating
'09-'10 Rink Wrap: 8.03 rating
'08-'09 Rink Wrap: 7.46 rating
'07-'08 Rink Wrap: 6.51 rating
GP
G
A
P
+/-
PIM
PPG
PPA
GWG
SOG
PCT
TOI/G
Regular Season
77
21
33
54
9
56
2
9
1
183
11.5
16:47
Playoffs
14
3
1
4
-4
10
2
0
1
35
8.6
17:28
Key Stat: Semin's 2.30 even strength points-per-60 was the second-highest production rate on the team during the regular season.
Interesting Stat: Semin appeared in 77 games this season, marking just the second time in his career - the first coming in 2006-07 - in which he missed no more than 5 games in a single campaign.
The Good: 2011-12 was something of a tale of two (or even four) seasons for Semin. About halfway through the year he seemed to find his stride - either as a result of the coaching change or simply as a happy coincidence in concert with it. En route to his sixth consecutive 20+ goal season, Semin picked up 26 points in the last 32 games, including 10 in the season's final 10 games that helped determine whether the Caps would even make the playoffs. In fact, from December 9 to the end of the season (a span of 53 games), only twice did he go more than two games without registering a point.
Semin may not have put up the points he usually does but he was still a factor offensively, and finished the season on for more even strength goals than any other forward. On the defensive side he continued to quietly be somewhat underrated, as he tied Brooks Laich for the team lead with 52 takeaways and was on for just 2.46 GA/60 at even strength, among the lowest GAON/60 of any of the team's "top" forwards.
Always a vicious opponent for division rivals, Semin continued his Southeast dominance with 9 goals against the division; his points-per-game rate was actually better elsewhere in the conference, however, with 17 points in 19 games against the Northeast Division. That carried over into the Caps' first round matchup against the Northeast-winning Bruins, with Semin scoring goals in three consecutive games - two of them on the power play (which accounted for almost a third of the team's total production with the extra man in the playoffs).
The Bad: Semin's career with the Capitals has been plagued by inconsistency and injury, which has often resulted in wistful musings about his untapped potential - "if only he could stay healthy, imagine what he could do". Well, for the first time in recent memory Semin managed to stay mostly healthy, missing just a handful of games... unfortunately, the inconsistency remained. As hot as he was in the second half of the season and first round of the playoffs, that's how ice cold he was to start and end the year, and the production that the Caps needed (and that his contract would imply) often wasn't there.
Semin scored just seven goals through the first 30 games of the regular season, largely contributing to the fact that he just barely cracked the 20-goal mark by the end of the year - and resulting in his lowest goal total since his rookie season when he played just 52 games. Another culprit? Lack of production with the extra man (although granted, that was a team-wide malaise for most of the season), as Semin scored a career-low two power play goals - a mark he would match in just five playoff games en route to a less-than-stellar four postseason points, with just one in the second-round loss to the Rangers.
And while it's become something of a trend for him to occasionally disappear in the postseason (hey, there's your consistency!), this was bad even for him; the four points he accumulated through fourteen games was the second-lowest postseason total of his career, and just a fraction of his total points the last time the team played through two rounds.
Of course while Semin may not have put up the gaudy numbers that we're used to seeing in one part of the scorecard, he certainly made up for it with gaudy numbers in other areas... just maybe not the kind you want to see. He finished the year tied for the team lead in penalties taken per 60 minutes, serving forty of his fifty-six penalty minutes in the first thirty games of the season (including an impressive mid-November run in which he took penalties in seven straight games). And while no one's questioning the awesome shot he possesses, had he hit the net more often he might have been able to pad those offensive numbers; instead he fired 98 shots high and/or wide, second-highest on the team behind Alex Ovechkin.
The Vote: Rate Semin below on a scale of 1-10 (10 being the best) based on his performance relative to his potential and your expectations for the season - if he had the best year you could have imagined him having, give him a 10; if he more or less played as you expected he would, give him a 5 or a 6; if he had the worst year you could have imagined him having, give him a 1.
The Discussion: What do you think factored in to Semin's strong second half of the season? On the flip side, what do you see as being the reason for such a slow start (and finish)? If the Caps were to re-sign Semin this summer, what type of contract would you be comfortable with? Do you think the Caps should try to retain him for one more year, or has the time finally come for the team to part ways with their longest-tenured player? And finally, if he sticks around, what will it take for him to earn a 10 rating next year?
